How to understand and apply the probability of winning the lottery
As a professional lottery player, you need to know about this “subject”. They are not difficult to grasp, but if you overlook them, you will lose an element to become an invincible lottery saint.
Reasons to calculate the lottery probability
There are two major mistakes that lottery players always make, leading to constant losses.
- First: Not knowing how to predict numbers, choosing numbers randomly, so the chances of winning are not high.
- Second: Not knowing how to calculate the probability of winning the lottery, so you spend money randomly, even if you win, the profit cannot cover the capital.
That is the reason to calculate the probability, to know how to play in order to achieve the highest winning rate, ensuring that the profit will exceed the capital.
To understand better, you need to know the following rules:
- Percentage of winning and losing numbers of a specific number from 00 to 99.
- Percentage of winning the lottery of a playing method: playing a single number, playing a special number, playing a pair, playing a set of numbers…
- Relative ratio of each specific number prediction method.
Most importantly, it is the winning and losing money of each specific playing method with equivalent rates.
From these factors, at least you will come up with a plan for the playing method and enter the money safely.
Winning means profit, and even if you lose, you won’t lose much. Is this reason enough to become the “necessary secret” to “put at the head of the bed” for you or not?
How to calculate the lottery probability from a mathematical perspective
Calculating the probability of winning the lottery from a mathematical perspective is the application of statistical probability.
This subject always makes you confused when you are still “grinding your head” in the school and now it is applied to calculate the winning – losing rate of the lottery.
Here, I will guide and specifically explain the calculation method, you just need to look at the logical results that have been pointed out.
1/ What percentage is the probability of winning the lottery?
To calculate the probability of winning the lottery for each region, we will start with the probability of winning each number from 00 – 99.
You can imagine as follows: From 00 – 99, there are 100 numbers, if you make a choice, you will receive the corresponding probabilities as follows:
- Choosing a single number, the probability of choosing correctly is 1/100 (or 1%), the probability of losing is 99% = 99%^1
- Choosing 2 numbers, the probability of winning is 2/100 (or 2%), the probability of losing is 98% = 99%*99% = 99%^2
- Choosing 3 numbers, the probability of winning is 3/100 (or 3%), the probability of losing is about 97% = 99%*99%*99% = 99%^3
So the more numbers you choose, the higher the probability of winning and the lower the probability of losing. Choose n numbers ⇒ The probability of losing the lottery will be 99%^n.
Now we will apply this to each region’s lottery to understand it better and avoid confusion.
a) Probability of winning in the Northern Lottery (XSMB)
The northern region has 27 numbers, so the probability of losing the lottery in the northern region is: 99%^27
⇒ The probability of winning (1-99%^27) *100% = 23.7%.
b) Probability of winning in the Southern and Central Lotteries (XSMN and XSMT)
The southern and central regions only have 18 numbers, so the probability of losing is: 99%^18
⇒ The probability of winning (1-99%^18) * 100% = 16.67%.
So if you bet on a single number, the probability of winning in the northern region is about 23%, while the probability of winning in the southern region is about 16%. If you bet on multiple numbers, the probability of winning is even higher.
Now you can calculate your profit and loss. According to this formula, if you bet too much on 4 numbers, even if the winning rate is very promising, the profit may not cover the initial capital.
Looking at this probability table, most players are advised to bet on multiple numbers.
Learn to balance between winning and losing, win a little but safely, especially if you win 2 – 3 times, the winnings will be substantial.
2/ Probability of winning the lottery
The lottery is not calculated the same way as the lottery because they only count for the special last two digits. The Southern and Central lotteries can be played as the first and last digits.
The percentage of winning if playing a specific lottery will be as follows:
a) Probability of winning the Northern Lottery (XSMB):
- Play 2D: choose 1 out of 100 numbers ⇒ probability of winning 1/100 = 1%.
- Play 3D: choose 1 out of 1000 numbers ⇒ Probability of winning 1/1000 = 0.1%.
- Play 4D: choose 1 out of 10,000 numbers ⇒ Probability of winning 1/10,000 = 0.01%.
b) Probability of winning the Southern and Central Lotteries
- 2D play first – last ⇒ Probability of winning doubles to 2/100 = 2%.
- 3D play odd – even ⇒ Probability of winning 2/1000 = 0.2%.
- 4D play similar to the Northern Lottery.
Since the probability of winning is quite low when betting on a single number, players will use the method of betting on multiple numbers to increase the winning rate.
3/ Calculating the probability of the lottery when playing combination bets
Calculating the probability of winning the lottery when playing combination bets also applies the formula for calculating the probability of winning each individual number, but the characteristic of combination bets is that all the chosen numbers must be drawn.
So for the Northern Lottery, the formula will be as follows:
- Probability of winning for combination 2: 23.7%*23.7% = 5.6%.
- Probability of winning for combination 3: 23.7%*23.7%*23.7%= 1.33%.
- Probability of winning for combination 4: 23.7%*23.7%*23.7%*23.7% = 0.31%.
With the remaining two sides, the calculation method is as follows:
- Double 2: 16.67% * 16.67% = 2.77%.
- Double 3: 16.67% * 16.67% * 16.67% = 0.46%.
- Double 4: 16.67% * 16.67% * 16.67% * 16.67% = 0.077%.
A relatively low probability of winning, right? That’s why the double bet has a very high reward but is not very popular.
Conclusion
The method of calculating lottery winning probability for all three sides above will help you choose a reasonable way to play and invest to ensure a profit for yourself.
Consider carefully and combine with accurate lottery prediction methods and unbeatable lottery experience to increase this percentage. Good luck to you.
