How bookmakers set odds in card games, football betting, sports, esports, etc.? Have you ever wondered where these numbers about the odds come from? Let’s join Vaobo88 to uncover this secret to understand how football betting sites set odds and always create advantages for themselves.
How bookmakers set football odds
You check the schedule and see that there is a match tonight between two famous teams. Immediately, you access any bookmaker’s site and see that the odds are always ready for bettors to choose from. 
Do you know what bookmakers rely on to calculate such odds? The explanations below will show you that there is a tremendous system behind every number of the odds at bookmakers.
Match data analysis
Not only in football but in all other sports, bookmakers also invest heavily in match data analysis systems. They often hire data experts to compile, understand, and manage all potential risks surrounding a match, such as:
- Starting lineups of both teams
- Number of key star players.
- Head-to-head history.
- Home or away?
- Physical condition, injuries
- Cards
- Specific weather conditions during the match
- Who is the referee, and what is their nationality?
They have the best data calculation software to ensure that the odds provided have estimated all possible outcomes just seconds after data entry.
That is how they can provide odds for hundreds of matches taking place every day worldwide.
You can refer back to the detailed article on odds to understand more about the types of bets in the market: How to read football odds
Market cash flow forecasting
After having all the data and analysis systems, bookmakers will compile information to predict the amount of cash that will flow into the betting market for that match. Coordinating with the data analysis system about past cash flow will help the bookmakers’ predictions become more accurate over time. Why is forecasting cash flow so important? Here are 4 reasons: Reason 1: This helps bookmakers understand the balance of each member on each betting outcome. Reason 2: Understand customer betting trends and know how to set the most appropriate odds to ensure that no matter the outcome, the bookmaker does not lose too much money. Reason 3: Adjust odds in real-time: When noticing a significant discrepancy in odds for a particular team. For example, if the bookmaker sees that 90% of players are betting on team A to win against team B, the bookmaker will have to lower the payout odds for that bet. => to ensure they do not lose too much money in the market. Reason 4: Trapping customers is a tactic that helps bookmakers rake in the largest amounts of money after each match. Sometimes, bookmakers will set odds that are too disparate, causing greedy players to bet heavily, only to have the odds flipped later. Bettors often refer to this as a bait-and-switch and always warn each other about this trick from bookmakers.
It is easy to see how this adjustment affects the final results when betting, you can refer to the article: What is Running Odds? A detailed guide on how to bet on Running Odds.
Revealing the bookmaker’s odds: Adjusting the betting odds
After analyzing the data and forecasting the flow of money into betting, the bookmaker begins to use the following two tricks:
- Releasing their own margin
- Providing overall odds that are always slightly lower than reality
=> This ensures that in all situations, the bookmaker’s advantage is always much higher than that of the players. It is extremely difficult for them to lose or go bankrupt. In reality, you can see from real life that it is very rare to see a bookmaker announce bankruptcy due to pooled betting money. 
For example: The payout rate should be 2, but the bookmaker always adjusts it to 1.5 or 1.9 depending on their generosity. This difference creates the bookmaker’s advantage and helps them make a profit. On average, they profit from 20% – 30% of the total betting capital in the market for each match.
Changing betting odds in real-time
Bettors always notice that the betting odds change in real-time. The odds in the first half can go up or down compared to the second half, and the odds in the first 5 minutes can differ from the odds from the 6th minute. This is the special secret of bookmakers to always ensure they are in control of the game. Any developments in the match can affect the final outcome, such as: Player injuries, free kicks, unstable weather, changes in team tactics, etc. They will change the input data and let their analysis system work to provide updated odds accordingly. That’s why people say “The bookmaker always wins.” Anyone who does not know how to analyze bookmaker odds is more likely to be swayed whenever they see the numbers on the odds table change. That’s why we continuously remind you to update your knowledge & experience in betting.
When does the bookmaker set the odds?
Usually, a major match (matches in the top 5 national championships in Europe) will have odds set 7 – 10 days before the match schedule takes place. This way, players will have time to gather data, analyze the odds to prepare in advance. However, we advise you to: Only analyze and study how to analyze football odds about 2-3 days before the match takes place. At that time, the strength of the lineup and the players’ physical condition are most clearly confirmed for evaluation. On match day, just wait for a good price, high odds, and then place your bet. Do not re-analyze the odds to avoid confusion. At this point, the odds fluctuate with the flow of money, which loses accuracy. If betting online, to catch the odds on the favorite or the total for the match, wait until the match starts, and only place your bet after the 10-15 minute mark. At that time, the odds are high, and the odds decrease more favorably.
Do bookmakers ever set the odds incorrectly?
Of course they do! No matter how advanced the bookmakers’ data calculation systems are. AI technology predicts cash flow accurately down to the last cent. Or the risk management department has ensured that all possible scenarios are covered, surprises can still happen. And that is precisely why football is considered the king of sports. It can make billions of men on Earth burst with joy or feel deep sorrow due to the failure of their favorite team. For example, in the Premier League season 2016, bookmakers offered odds of 5000/1 if Leicester City won the championship or reached the finals.
This means that if you bet $1 on this team, you could win up to 5000 times your stake. They believed that a team at risk of relegation in the 2014 – 2015 season could win the championship only by faith. And you know what happened next. The Foxes achieved the most magnificent feat in the history of English football by not only defeating a series of higher-ranked opponents but also clinching the championship two rounds early. Financial reports have shown that bookmakers have lost hundreds of millions to billions of USD due to the odds being ironically against them. This shows that in football, anything can happen, and in the betting field, 99.99% is still not certain.
In the situation where football matches worldwide are being delayed due to the impact of the Covid pandemic, virtual football is rising.
Conclusion
You see that the way bookmakers set odds is indeed very sophisticated and complex, right? However, 30 is not yet Tet, and you shouldn’t focus too much on the numbers. Football always has its strong allure because of its unpredictability. If you are a gambler, always remember this and do not let the numbers affect your betting decisions too much. If you are new, please refer to the way register for online football betting to initially join this exciting sport.
